Pacquiao vs. Cotto Keys to Victory part 4: Breaking down the fight

Less than one week to go before the most anticipated fight of the year will happen. Once again, celebrities will fill the seats of the MGM Grand Arena to witness the WBO Welterweight championship fight between Manny Pacquiao and Miguel Cotto. As the days leading up to the fight grow closer, boxing scribes, boxing commentators, and boxing analysts are giving their opinions on how the fight might turn out. And the most exciting thing about this sport is that anything can happen in boxing. Yes! Absolutely anything can happen, such as ear-biting, some guy can crash into the middle of the ring on a hang-glider, or a former Jr. Flyweight beating a legendary fighter who’s a former middleweight champion. We’ll never really know what’s going to happen until the fight happens! Nevertheless it would still be fun to give out predictions on how things might turn out. And if one’s prediction come's to fruition, he would have the privilege to say “I told you so” to those who predicted otherwise. Without further ado, let’s get into it!

In one corner you got Miguel Angel Cotto, the WBO welterweight champion of the world. He is an inch taller, broad shoulders, thicker back, and well defined arms. He is naturally bigger, he is no doubt stronger, and he has more experience beating bigger men such as Carlos Quintana and Joshua Clottey.

And in the other corner you have Manny Pacquiao, the Ring Lineal Light Welterweight Champion of the world. He is an inch shorter, he is naturally smaller, he is a few years older yet still in the prime of his career, and no doubt the faster fighter of the two. Manny Pacquiao has more experience with sending legendary fighters into retirement, and winning more championships in different weight divisions.

But we have to consider that most of Manny Pacquiao’s accomplishments were in the lower weight categories. He has only one fight in the welterweight division against Oscar Dela Hoya which he won in very convincing fashion via 8th round TKO.

Many people would point out that Manny Pacquiao has successfully carried his power as he went up in weight division. And as evidence of that is his devastating one punch “lights out” knockout win against Ricky Hatton.

Still many scribes would also point out that Miguel Cotto has been stunned before by the likes of Ricardo Torres and Antonio Margarito. Yes, Cotto indeed had fought the fight of his life against Ricardo Torres. He was stunned, rocked, wobbled, and knocked down by Torres’ heavy blows, yet Miguel’s resiliency got him through that fight. What was impressive was that he managed to fight back against Torres even when he was in his groggy state. He managed to knock Torres down, stinging him with his non-dominant right hand! Then he finished Torres with that dangerous hook to the body. That was a very gallant performance by Cotto! And against Antonio Margarito; Miguel Cotto was never groggy, or wobbled when he lost via TKO. The reason he took that knee is because his face was badly cut and broken. Imagine having a pair of concrete gloves smashing into your face and body at full force, what would you do? Exactly! Take a knee rather than sustain permanent damage.

I say, Miguel Cotto is one tough, durable guy. The keys to victory for Cotto would be to use his strength against Pacquiao, bully him, rough the Pacman up. He needs to cut off the ring when Manny Pacquiao tries to circle around. When Pacquiao is about to side step to the right, he needs to step with his left foot and block Pacquiao’s way. He needs to trap Manny by pushing and shoving him, using his elbows, shoulders and head. He needs to put pressure on Manny when they clinch, make Manny feel the strength and the weight of his body. Miguel needs to muscle up Manny and throw him into a corner to trap him and bomb Manny with those killer body shots. Miguel Cotto would have to turn this fight into a brawl where Manny Pacquiao would have no room to dance around, leaving the Pacman no choice but to trade power shots with Cotto. And of course, since Miguel is the bigger and stronger guy, in theory, brawling toe-to-toe with Manny Pacquiao would favor Cotto.

Additional keys for a Cotto victory:

If there’s a style that has proven to give Manny Pacquiao a whole lot of trouble, it is the “counter-punching” style of Juan Manuel Marquez. For two fights against him, Manny had a hard time figuring out how to defeat the his counter-punching. And in Manny’s loss to Erik Morales, Morales won by counter-punching. Cotto may opt to box Pacquiao. He’ll wait for Pacquiao to come to him and initiate the attack. And during Manny’s attack, Cotto needs to time his counter-punches to nullify Manny’s speed. Cotto has done this before against speedy guys like Sugar Shane Mosley and Zab Judah. And it is no surprise if Cotto would adjust from his usual pressuring style to the boxer-counter puncher style.

We have to take note that Miguel Cotto is a lefty who fights in the “right handed stance". Despite this fact, his right hand packs so much power that he has knocked out opponents the likes of Torres with it. His left hand is very strong. He was able to knock down Joshua Clottey with his left jab. Many other fighters fell into submission with his left hook to the body. Miguel Angel can also shift stance into the “lefty southpaw stance” just like what he did with Zab Judah. So, Manny Pacquiao’s southpaw stance may prove to be of little advantage for him in this fight.

The key to victory for Miguel Angel Cotto is to land a clear flush shot against the smaller Manny Pacquiao. If he is able to do that, it is very much possible that he could knock Manny Pacquiao out. Easier said than done though.

Pacquiao too has been rocked and wobbled before, by the likes of Nadal Hussein with a short left jab. two out of the three Pacquiao defeats came via knock out. Then again, the Manny Pacquiao of the old is totally different from the Manny Pacquiao of today. In his last three fights he climbed up in weight. He took on bigger guys such as David Diaz, Oscar Dela Hoya and Ricky Hatton, neither of which really landed any significant blows on Manny Pacquiao for us to see how he would handle a punch from bigger and stronger guys. Manny Pacquiao is so fast that he’s no longer there when his opponents throw their punches at him. The thing with Manny Pacquiao is this: How can you knock out the Pacman if you can’t catch him?


Manny Pacquiao’s key to victory is evident, it's his speed. He must be the fastest fighter, and with speed comes power. The faster an object travels, the more devastation it produces on impact. Coach Freddie Roach made no secret about their game plan in this fight. That is to use Manny’s tremendous speed, with his footwork and dazzling combinations. Hit Miguel Cotto with fast flurries of three-punch-combinations and then dance away out of range. And Pacquiao has the ability, agility, speed, strength and stamina to do so. He can keep going and going for the whole twelve rounds throwing machine gun bombs at his opponents. Manny Pacquiao needs to avoid getting trapped. The "Pacman" needs to stay in the middle of the ring, and avoid leaning on the ropes at all times. Stay away from Miguel Cotto’s atom bombs.

The key to victory for Pacquiao in this fight is to wear Miguel Angel Cotto down with a constant downpour of punches. Remember, no matter how good of shape a body may be in, if it keeps getting pounded over and over again, sooner or later it will break. Manny needs to pick his shots wisely, and avoid taking so much risk. His old style of “Getting some to give some more” would not be very applicable in this scenario as Miguel Cotto is the bigger puncher. Pacquiao needs to slide in and throw powerful combinations at Cotto and quickly dance away before Cotto unleashes his counter punches.

I am sure that Miguel Angel Cotto is well aware of Manny Pacquiao’s speed, and he is not a slow sloth himself. And likewise, Manny Pacquiao is well aware of Miguel Cotto’s power, but we all know that the "Pacman" is not a feather-fisted fighter. These are the reasons why this fight is so much anticipated! It has all the marking of an exciting fight.

I would also like to take note that from the looks of Miguel’s recent training videos, he looks ripped and big. He is all muscles with his frame and yet he still seems to be off the target in weight. In this fight the official contracted weight is 145lbs in the welterweight division. And you know what that means right? He needed to burn his muscles even more to climb down in weight! And you don’t need a nutritionist to tell you that burning your muscles to go down in weight in a short period of time would weaken any fighter. Manny Pacquiao on the other hand is very much comfortable in his weight right now. He is well adjusted to his new weight division, which means he could convert his bigger body weight into punching power. His natural weight is 149lbs and he could easily lose some weight by shedding off some sweat, urine, and other bodily wastes come weight-in time and weight 145lbs with no problem.

In conclusion, I think Manny will have the hardest time against Miguel Cotto. Although I would be very amazed to see a knock-out win over Cotto like he did against Ricky Hatton, nevertheless Miguel Cotto is one tough customer. Miguel Cotto is tough and durable, and the chances of Manny knocking out this guy are slim. I’m not sure if Miguel can indeed land a significant blow against Manny Pacquiao. If the Pacman brings his “A-Game” come fight night, Miguel is going to have a very frustrating night. What’s the use of power-punching if you are not be able to land it? Take note, although Miguel Angel Cotto has a bigger, heavier frame and is an inch taller, both fighters have the same reach.


My prediction: Manny Pacquiao via decision.