The Miguel Cotto – Manny Pacquiao welterweight title fight this Saturday resembles the closest thing I can think of in recent memory to a true “pick em” fight. There is no clear cut favorite and both men have an excellent chance of winning and even stopping each other and earning a TKO.
The Argument for Cotto
Betting odds indicate that Cotto is an underdog in this fight. However if you’re a betting person, you may want to throw some bucks on Cotto to win. The pay could be large and is certainly possible.
Cotto’s strengths are that he is a supreme body puncher; deals well with southpaws and is good at dealing with adversity. Can Cotto take advantage of these traits against Pacquiao?
Some trainers, Floyd Mayweather Sr. most notably, have pointed out a flaw that Pacquiao at times leaves himself open for body punches. Out of Pacquiao’s three career losses, two have come as a result of being stopped from body punches. Of course, the most recent of these KO losses came in 1999.
Cotto, sometimes fighting as a southpaw himself, is unbeaten against them. Fighting lefties, he is 3-0, with 3 KO’s. He KO’d veteran Demarcus “Chop Chop” Corley in the 5th round of their 2005 junior welterweight title fight, He won his first world title as a welterweight stopping slick boxer Carlos Quintana within 5 rounds in 2006, and stopped former undisputed world champ Zab Judah defending a welterweight title in 2007. Many experts, including boxing historian Bert Randolph Sugar, feel Pacquiao may be the best southpaw fighter of all time. Time will tell if Cotto can continue his unblemished record against left handed fighters.
Cotto has had to gut out many wins in his 9 year career. Like Pacquiao, he has a habit of participating in fight of the year caliber bouts. Against power puncher Ricardo Torres in a junior welterweight fight, Cotto was knocked down and rocked several times during the fight before coming off the canvas to stop Torres in the 7th round. He was buzzed against Zab Judah and managed to regroup and win an 11th round TKO. In his most recent outing against Josh Clottey, he won a 12 round split decision despite a nasty cut over his eye dripping blood into his line of vision for most of the fight.
The only time Cotto has failed to win after being knocked down was his only career defeat against Antonio Margarito. Months later Margarito was caught attempting to wear gloves loaded with plaster of paris into the ring against Shane Mosley. Many have theorized, including Pacquiao’s trainer Freddie Roach, that this may be why Margarito was able to stop the much more technically sound Cotto in their 2008 welterweight fight. It was ultimately Cotto’s former trainer / uncle Evangelista Cotto who threw in the towel against Margarito in the 11th round with his nephew’s face disfigured from the beating he took the final rounds of the bout after thoroughly outclassing Margarito for the first 6 frames.
Most likely ways for Cotto to win: Stop Pacquiao with a body punch, take the fight into deep waters and impose size advantage to stop Pacquiao late or force Pacman into a war eking out a close decision.
The Argument for Pacquiao
Pacquiao has speed, he’s managed to bring his power up in weight, and he’s been on a roll lately.
Cotto is fast. However, Pacquiao is probably faster. Pacman’s last three opponents have not been able to deal with his quickness. Ricky Hatton was knocked down three time en route to being brutally KO’d in the 2nd round, Oscar De La Hoya had no answers in receiving an 8 round beatdown and David Diaz was beatdown before being KO’d flat on his face. Cotto, certainly better at this point than any of those fighters, best bet to offset Pacquiao’s speed is to disrupt his timing with counterpunching similar to the way Juan Manuel Marquez did. But will he be able to and if so, will it be enough?
Pacquiao’s last three bouts have ended via stoppage in his favor and Cotto has been hurt in fights before. Freddie Roach has made the claim that Pacquiao can knock Cotto out in the opening round. Cotto has been hurt early before. Zab Judah and Ricardo Torres did it. If Pacquiao stuns him early, Roach expects him to close the show. Most of the times we saw Cotto buzzed in fights came at 140 pounds. Since he’s moved up to 147 pounds his chin has proven to be sturdier. Saturday’s fight is at a 145 pound catchweight. Will Pacquiao be able to stop a prime welterweight and will the two pounds Cotto had to lose play a factor?
Will Cotto become the next in line via Diaz, De La Hoya, and Hatton? Time will tell.
Most likely way for Pacquiao to win: by utilizing his apparent speed advantage to land early and often leading to a TKO win, perhaps early.
Listen to Manny Pacquiao's interview with 8CN
